Prof.  Defu  Liu
Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Ocean University of China,  China

Title: Typhoon/ Hurricane/ Tropical Cyclone Disasters：Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation

Abstract:

Since 1972 Rita typhoon attacked on Dalian Port and induced severe catastrophe, we were studied on statistical prediction model of typhoon induced wave height and wind speed. With an increasing tendency of the natural hazards frequency and intensity, risk assessment of some design codes for coastal defence infrastructures should be of paramount importance influencing the economic development and a lot of lifes in China. Comparison between existing extreme statistical model like Gumbel, Weibull, P-Ⅲ distribution or Probable Maximum Typhoon/Hurricane(PMT/PMH), Design Basis Flood (DBF) with our 1975-1980 proposed (CEVD) model showed that all the planned, designed and constructed coastal infrastructures accepted the traditional safety regulations are menaced by possibility of future typhoon/hurricane disasters and cannot satisfy the safety requirements with the increasing tendency of the extreme natural hazards. Our first publication in US (J. of Waterway Port Coastal & Ocean Eng. ASCE, 1980, ww4 ) proposed an new model “Compound Extreme Value Distribution” used for China sea, after then the model was used in “Long term Distribution of Hurricane Characteristics” for Gulf of Mexico &Atlantic coasts,U.S. (OTC.1982). 2005 hurricane Katrina, Rita and 2012 hurricane Sandy induced disasters proved 1982 CEVD and CEVD has been developed into Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD). 2006 MCEVD predicted extreme hazards in New Orleans, Gulf of Mexico and Philadelphia areas. 2013 typhoon Fitow induced disaster in China also proved MCEVD 2006 predicted results.

During the past years, CEVD and MCEVD have been applied to more than 50 coastal, offshore, and hydraulic projects in China and abroad. The theory of MCEVD is also referenced by some foreign experts and used for extreme sea hazards study in North Sea and around Korean coast  In view of the ‘‘Summary of flood frequency analysis in the United States” concluded that “the combination of the event-based and joint probability approaches promises to yield significantly improved descriptions of the probability laws of extraordinary floods’’. MCEVD is the model that follows the development direction of the extraordinary floods prediction, as desired by Kirby and Moss. It stands to reason that MCEVD is a good model for typhoon and hurricane  disaster prediction. Our proposed methods are used as design criteria of wind-structure interaction experimentation for mitigating hurricane-induced U. S. coastal disasters.

   

 Our lecture will included following centents:

(1) Comparison between 1982 CEVD predicted results and NOAA proposed SPH and PMH

(2). Main reason of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed 116 fixed platforms in Gulf of Mexico.

(3). 2012 HurricaneSandyinduced flooded area proved 1982 CEVD predicted storm surge

(4) Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy proved MCEVD predicted results

(5) 2013 Typhoon Fitow proved 2006 MCEVD predicted disaster inShanghaicity

(6), Poisson- Weibull Compound Extreme Value Distribution (P-W CEVD)

and Its Application along U. S. Coasts

(7). 2012 HurricaneSandyinduced flooded area proved 1982 CEVD predicted storm surge

(8).  2013 Typhoon Fitow proved 2006 MCEVD predicted disaster inShanghaicity

(9), Risk assessment for Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) against sea hazards

(10),Study on the flood volume of the Three Gorges Dam Project

(11),Design Code Calibration of Offshore Platform Against Typhoon/Hurricane Attacks

(12),Prediction of the Flood Disasters in Yangtze River:  Examples for Three Gorges Dam Project and Estuarine City Shanghai

(13) System Analysis of Disaster Prevention Design Criteria for Coastal and Estuarine Cities,

(14) Four Natural Disasters in US and China: A Evidence for Validity of Probability Prediction by Compound Extreme Value Distribution

Biography:

Experience

2002-Present----Professor and Director

             Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Ocean University of China

1994-2001------Professor and Dean

            College of Engineering,Ocean University o China

             Visiting Professor

            Hiroshima University,Japan

            Russian State Hydrologic Institute at St. Petersburg

  1991-1993----- Professor and Director,

              Ocean Engineering Research Institute,Tianjin University：    

  1987：--------- Visiting Professor

              National University of Singapore

1988-1990------Visiting Professor

             Norwegian University of Science and Technology

1984-1989------Professor and chairman

             Department of Marine Engineering,Tianjin University

1980-1983------Visiting Scholar

            Kobe University,Japan

            Delaware University,USA

            University of Florida,USA

1962- 1979----- Associate Professor,Tianjin University

Research fields:

 

   Extreme statistics of natural hazards;

   Typhoon/Hurricane/Tropical cyclone triggered disasters: prediction and prevention;

   Offshore, coastal and hydrologic engineering design codes calibration;

   Offshore and coastal structure reliability analysis;

   Longshore Sediment Transport,

   Probability prediction of rainfall triggered landslides and debris flows;

   Stochastic simulation techniques for multivariables

   Risk assessment for nuclear power plants coastal defense against disasters