Dr. Gitika Nagrath
DAV University Jalandhar (Punjab), India
Title: Predicting India’s Tourism Future in Global Landscape: A Comparative ARIMA based Forecast of International Tourist Arrivals
Abstract:
International Tourist Arrivals (ITA) represent a critical indicator of global tourism performance, economic integration, and destination competitiveness. Over the past two decades, global tourism flows have experienced significant fluctuations due to economic cycles, geopolitical uncertainties, health crises, and subsequent recovery phases. Understanding the long-term dynamics of international tourist movements is therefore essential for strategic planning and policy formulation. India holds a notable stand within the global tourism landscape with a contribution of 1.5 per cent of total international arrivals which contributes 2.1 per cent to worldwide tourism receipts. This study examines the trajectory of India’s International Tourist Arrivals (ITA) in comparison with total world International Tourist Arrivals from 2001 to 2023. It evaluates India’s contribution to global tourism flows, analyzes growth patterns, and assesses the country’s relative standing and rank at the world level. The study employs secondary time-series data and applies the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast international tourist arrivals for both India and the world for the next five years. The findings reveal cyclical fluctuations with distinct disruption and recovery phases, followed by a projected medium-term stabilization and growth trend. The keynote address shall provide insights into country’s evolving global tourism position as per the forecast of the international tourist arrivals in India and offer evidence-based implications for strategic tourism planning and international competitiveness.
Biography:
Dr. Gitika Nagrath, Dean (Commerce, Buss. Mgt., Economics & Humanities) at DAV University Jalandhar (Punjab), India holds a rich background in academics, academic leadership, strategic planning and keen ability to adapt and grow within academic environment with 20 years of experience. Successfully led curriculum development initiatives specifically in tune with National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 curriculum guidelines by University Grants Commission & industry collaborated skill development-oriented degree programmes with world renowned names viz. SAP, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., Bajaj Finserv and Tally. Demonstrated the comprehensive understanding of Outcome Based Education by implementing it focusing on Outcome Based Curriculum, Outcome Based Learning & Teaching and Outcome Based Assessment for the range of programmes across the Dept. of Commerce, Business Mgt., Economics, Psychology, English and Journalism & Mass Media.
Dr. Nagrath fostered faculty excellence by organizing and facilitated the faculty to organise more than fifty-five academic sessions including expert talks, workshops, panel discussions, debate competitions, open forums, skill-based certification programmes in collaboration with industry and eminent academic institutions for students & faculty. Served as a panelist/resource person for range of sessions (panel discussions/FDPs/Expert talks) viz., NEP 2020 curriculum guidelines, outcome-based education and teaching-learning pedagogies/methods. She has published twenty-four research papers/ book chapters in the Scopus indexed, Web of Science and UGC Care listed journals of renowned publishers like Sage, Springer, Elsvier, ISTD; presented more than twenty-nine papers in conferences, seminars and workshops at national & international level.